The summer box office hasn't been looking so great. So far, films such as The Flash and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny have performed less than predicted and are on their way to losing money for their studios. If you could go back a few months prior, the box office has had a similar result with films such as Shazam! Fury of the Gods and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. While Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Barbie, and Oppenheimer seek to be the remedy, it doesn't change the fact that this summer has started on the wrong foot.
Having said that, performing under expectations has not been the fate of all films released. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Across the Spider-Verse, Asteroid City, Creed III, and John Wick 4 have been big moneymakers while winning the public's adoration. What we're seeing is films with negative or middling reviews flail, while films that audiences and critics love find success. So, what separates the success of the films that are beloved from the bombs that people weren't feeling is an underrated, taken-for-granted aspect of the film-going experience: word of mouth.
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Why Word of Mouth Is So Important for the Film Industry
Word of mouth is one of the more important aspects of the filmgoing experience. Having a friend or loved one tell you about a film they saw and how great it was coaxes you to see it. It's been a large part of the movie-going lineage because of the (what some people perceive as) hassle that comes with going to the movies. You have to find time in your schedule, figure out what showing you're going to, and go to your nearest theater. You then have to pay for rising ticket prices, and maybe pay money for concessions. Why go through all that if a movie is going to be "eh?" If you have to do all that, then the film better be well worth it. As a result, there's also a correlation between word of mouth and the box office.
2022 was really the first year that film-going resembled what it looked like pre-pandemic. We saw the fading of same-day releases in theaters and at home as well as people returning to theaters after almost two years. This reopening of the filmgoing experience forming the lifeblood of theaters, but also came with a change. Now people are pickier when it comes to what they want to see. Also, 2022 saw a return of the moneymakers (not comic-book related) with record-breaking films as Top Gun Maverick, Everything, Everywhere, All at Once, and Avatar The Way of Water. Movies such as those showed that the summer film is not dead and is a rousing good time for people to experience in a cinema, so long as the film that people are seeing is of excellent quality. All these films had great word of mouth, which lead to great success.
'Everything Everywhere All at Once's Success Shows the Importance of Word of Mouth
Let's examine the great success of EEAAO as an example of effective word of mouth. EEAAO had a small opening of 10 screens and was met with critical praise. As a result, there was already some level of hype and awareness for this film before a wider release. So, when it opened in a wide release, people were already intrigued with what this film could do, and curiosity would lead them to the theaters. Their curiosity turned into a $100 million film phenomenon that would later go on to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
While the box office performance is largely predicated on the opening weekend numbers, there's also the second-weekend performance to consider. Many films, especially big-budget blockbusters, are largely front-loaded. The expectation is for a large opening weekend to account for the drop-off in the following weeks. For example, if a film earned $150 million in the first weekend, then bringing $70 million is standard. Getting close to and less than 50% of the opening week is a victory because it means that a film has enough staying power. Let's take a real-world example that we have seen in the last year.
The Differences Between 'Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania' and 'Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3's Box-Office Performances
So far this year, the Marvel Cinematic Universe has released two films: Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3. As of late, the Marvel brand has not had the best of track records. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, and Thor: Love and Thunderfaced middling reviews. The only saving grace of the past year was the loving tribute to Chadwick Boseman in the form of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. So, the following two films had goals of setting up the next big bad of the MCU and the final chapter of a trilogy, respectively.
The reception to these films is night and day. Ant-Man 3 was criticized for its VFX, plot, and tone, while Guardians 3 was praised for its heart, humor, and being a proper send-off to the MCU's found family. With the critical reception in mind, their box-office performance reflects that sentiment. Ant-Man 3, being one of the few MCU films to lose money at the box office, earned (in North America) $120.4 million in its first weekend, but later dropped to $32 million (-69%). The film had one of the largest drops in MCU histories as opposed to Guardians 3, which made close to $120 million in its first weekend and later $62 million in the second weekend (a drop of only 47%), with only getting to $32 million in its third weekend. The word of mouth of Ant-Man 3 was what doomed the film (but it's also one of many reasons). If this film is being marketed as a big, important installment in a franchise that has seen better days, and one hears of its mediocrity, what's the point of seeing it? With Guardians 3 being considered one of the best MCU films post-Avengers: Endgame, people wanted to see this supposed return to form for Marvel after such positive reviews and talk. It turns out, if you tell a story people love, then more people will want to watch it.
So, what is happening with this current summer box office is that the wool can no longer be pulled over the audience's eyes. After a year of staying at home and the rising prices of tickets, people are more discerning when it comes to what they want to spend their 2+ hours on. M3GAN started out the year as 2023's first big hit with its word of mouth and viral marketing strategy. Now, it's imperative for these films to be so good that the audience feels like they're missing out if they don't see the movie instead of either skipping it or waiting until it comes out on home release.
