Nine games. Seven Forwards. One goal. Why aren’t Newcastle United scoring? (2024)

Steve Bruce was greeted by two friendly and extremely recognisable faces inside the tunnel at Stamford Bridge after Newcastle United’s defeat to Chelsea.

Ant and Dec, who had watched their team deliver a dogged defensive display from a box at the west London ground, took it in turns to share a warm embrace with their fellow Geordie before engaging in a brief conversation. If they did indeed discuss what they had just witnessed unfold, then it would be a surprise if goals, or a lack thereof, was not chief among the topics.

In isolation, a 1-0 defeat at fourth-placed Chelsea — in a game which Newcastle defended resolutely — is not in itself a cause for concern.

But, when you consider that Newcastle failed to manage a shot on target and have gone scoreless in four of the nine Premier League games, then the wider context highlights an alarming problem.

There were glimpses of how dangerous Allan Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron could be on the counterattack early on, while Andy Carroll provided a direct option off the bench, but Newcastle did not trouble Kepa Arrizabalaga.

On BBC Radio Newcastle immediately after the defeat, ex-defender John Anderson summed it up perfectly when he stated: “You wonder where the goals will come from.” Record goalscorer Alan Shearer has repeatedly voiced similar misgivings.

Newcastle’s lack of an offensive threat is adding fuel to the relegation fears some fans harboured the moment it was confirmed Rafael Benitez would not be staying on as manager in late-June. Salomon Rondon and Ayoze Perez, who scored 54.8 per cent of Newcastle’s 42 Premier League goals last season, also departed, leaving the club short of a top-flight marksman.

So far this season, five different players have scored for Newcastle in the Premier League — Fabian Schar, Jetro Willems, Jonjo Shelvey, Matty Longstaff and Joelinton — but none have found the net more than once. In fact, the club’s seven ‘forwards’ — Joelinton, Almiron, Saint-Maximin, Christian Atsu, Andy Carroll, Dwight Gayle and Yoshinori Muto — have played a combined 2,311 minutes, yet have scored just one goal between them.

Newcastle are currently finding the back of the net every 162 minutes. Were they to continue scoring at the same rate for the whole season, Newcastle would finish with just 21 goals to their name — one more than the unforgettably dreadful Derby County side of 2007-08.

It is not just that Newcastle are being profligate in front of goal either, even if Joelinton and Almiron have wasted some glorious opportunities, and even if Newcastle’s conversion rate of 8.62 per cent is the second-lowest in the top flight. More worrying is the dearth of chances Newcastle are creating.

In just about every offensive metric Opta provide, Newcastle are either bottom or extremely close to it. Only Watford have scored as few goals, and only five teams average fewer than a goal a game, yet the Hertfordshire side actually boast an xG (expected goals) – a measure of the quality of chances produced — of 12.01. Newcastle, meanwhile, have an xG of 5.65, with just three other sides below 10.

Newcastle have managed just 81 shots so far this season, an average of nine per game, a total only Wolverhampton Wanderers (8.9 per match) have been unable to better, yet the West Midlanders have scored 12 goals. Just a quarter of Newcastle’s shots have been on target (21), meaning Bruce’s side only trouble the opposition goalkeeper 2.33 times per game, or little more than once per half. That is another top-flight low.

Newcastle’s seven forwards have had just 73 touches in the opposition box between them. Joelinton has had 31 of those, at an average of just 3.44 per game — and they have also had just 36 shots between them. Only Joelinton (1.41) and Almiron (1.28) average an individual xG in excess of 0.15, while Gayle did not even touch the ball once, never mind in the box, during his five-minute cameo at Stamford Bridge.

With a crossing accuracy from open play of just 22.89 per cent, an average of only 20.22 passes played into the opposition box per game, and just 123 touches recorded in the opposition area, it is clear that Newcastle are not even putting their forwards into positions to score regularly enough.

Their Premier League-low average possession of 31.95 per cent — only Burnley (38.21 per cent) also enjoy less than 40 per cent of the ball — is not a negative in itself. In 2017-18 and 2018-19, for example, Newcastle averaged just 41.28 and 39.37 per cent possession respectively.

However, Newcastle’s game plan this term is to cede possession before transitioning swiftly, yet they are not counterattacking effectively enough and that lack of precision is behind the dearth of goals. They were simply woeful in attack against both Watford and Brighton & Hove Albion at St James’ Park.

There are some mitigating factors, of course. Newcastle have played five of the so-called ‘Big Six’, plus third-placed Leicester, while Bruce only arrived in mid-July and did not have a full pre-season with his squad.

What’s more, at least some of the summer signings were identified before Bruce was appointed, meaning the squad is comprised of players Benitez acquired, or those who the recruitment team recommended. Therein appears to lie part of the problem.

One of Benitez’s key divergences in vision from the Newcastle hierarchy concerned recruitment. While Newcastle’s scouts may have identified a host of promising youngsters, Benitez wanted to sign players to perform a specific role. Rondon, Perez and Almiron had the characteristics to play the style Benitez wanted, as well as complement one another.

Joelinton and Saint-Maximin have immense potential, yet where they fit together into Newcastle’s attack remains unclear. Joelinton mainly played out wide for Hoffenheim but is being utilised as a centre-forward, while Saint-Maximin prefers to feature on the left, the position Almiron performed so well in last season, but now the Paraguayan is out on the right.

Admittedly, the trio have only started three games together due to Saint-Maximin’s fitness issues but how Newcastle’s £70 million strike-force are going to operate together remains undetermined, given that they all prefer to play on the left and are still adapting to English football.

Already, Bruce has spoken about the need to “protect” Joelinton, who the head coach recognises is still a rookie No 9, and there is a suspicion that the Brazilian may be moved out to the left or taken out of the team for a period soon. Almiron, meanwhile, was close to bring dropped last month and, with Bruce now admitting the Paraguayan is “low on confidence”, it would not be a surprise if the January signing found himself out of the team.

The issue Bruce faces is that, although he would ideally like to start with his more experienced Premier League players to bring some know-how to the forward line, he has fitness concerns. Carroll has played 89 minutes across four substitute appearances, but is probably not ready to start just yet following ankle surgery. Gayle, meanwhile, is recovering from a calf problem. Bruce is a fan of Gayle, who he attempted to sign while at Aston Villa, but the forward’s lack of match fitness, as well as his reputation as more of a Championship marksman, may mean his promotion into the starting XI is postponed.

What’s more, Newcastle’s offensive alternatives will not guarantee a change in fortune anyway. Muto has just one Premier League goal to his name, while Atsu has just three.

Already, the January window is looking like an important one for Newcastle. Lille’s Victor Osimhen, who has scored seven goals this season, was linked last weekend, but he is 20 years old and is not the proven Premier League goalscorer Bruce needs.

There should be at least £15 million left over from the season’s transfer budget to spend in January, which will not stretch far during an inflated mid-season window, particularly if Newcastle are struggling to attract players should they find themselves in a perilous position. Already, there are whispers behind the scenes about the loan market — Newcastle still have both domestic slots available — being important, which did prove crucial in transforming the 2017-18 season once Martin Dubravka and Kenedy arrived on temporary deals.

In 2015-16, when Newcastle were relegated, they initially relied upon a young centre-forward in Aleksandar Mitrovic, then failed to sign an experienced marksman — the baffling recruitment of Seydou Doumbia on loan aside — and they cannot make the same mistake again in January. Recruiting a proven striker has to be a priority.

Yet Newcastle have another 11 fixtures to negotiate before incoming transfers can potentially positively effect their campaign, anyway. As Bruce himself states, with Wolves (home), West Ham (away), Bournemouth (home) and Villa (away) up next, Newcastle face a “vitally important” few weeks.

Over the course of the next month, Newcastle’s campaign should be defined. They will either pull clear of the drop zone, or condemn themselves to a season-long struggle for survival.

The only way they can ensure it is the former is by scoring more goals. It is up to Bruce to uncover the formula. Any reshuffle of the forward line would be a gamble, as would keeping faith with the current front three.

As Ant and Dec surely know, there does not appear to be a quick fix to Newcastle’s goalscoring woes.

(Photo: Owen Humphreys/PA Images via Getty Images)

Chris Waugh is a staff writer for The Athletic, covering North East football and most particularly Newcastle United. Before joining The Athletic he worked for MailOnline, and then reported on NUFC for The Chronicle, The Journal and The Sunday Sun. He has covered NUFC home and away since 2015. Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisDHWaugh